Equity Market Outlook


AS ON 28th February 2022

 


Geo Politics: With the unfortunate incident of Russian agression over Ukraine, there has been a sharp jump in International Crude oil prices and other commodity prices like Aluminium, natural gas prices among many other. If the situation continues, it runs the risk of jeopardising the Global economic recovery. It can have meaningful impact on Equity as an asset class as well, with some probability of serious cuts to earnings expectations

Quarterly Earnings: The December quarter earnings were broadly in line with estimates. However the beat that we had seen in the last two quarters vs the estimates was not there this time around. Cement, Autos lagged expectations whereas Financials did better than expectations

Budget: India’s 2022-23 budget dynamics were very similar to last year: an overarching focus on infrastructure spending coupled with very conservative tax assumptions. The tax assumptions underpinning estimates are overly conservative

Covid: Cases/Vaccinations: Covid cases have come down in the country now. Many States have started relaxing some of the Covid related restrictions. Air travel has been very good bookings for the Summer season, If the same trend of covid continues, most of the country will have near normal kind of movement. Vaccination still continues at a decent pace

Politics: State Elections: 5 states in India will head to the polls beginning 10th Feb to kick off election season that experts say is likely to determine the political direction of the world’s largest democracy, with more than 180 mn voters eligible to vote