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Debt Market Outlook


AS ON 27TH FEBRUARY 2026

 

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Domestic bond market is expected to remain range-bound with intermittent volatility, shaped by domestic liquidity conditions, government borrowing dynamics, inflation trends, and global risk factors. On the supply side, large state development loan (SDL) issuances and higher central government gross market borrowings could push yields upward. Additionally, currency pressures, persistent geopolitical tensions, rising global bond yields, and uncertainty around international tariffs may contribute to market volatility. However, government measures such as switches, buybacks, and open market operations (OMOs) by the RBI to support liquidity are expected to ease some supply-side pressures. Thus, we expected domestic bond yields to likely remain range bound. A benign inflation outlook coupled with resilient economic growth should allow the RBI to maintain its current interest rate stance and adopt a data-driven approach.


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